Count down begins..

Counting begins at 8 AM. Hopefully, results will start trickling out by 9 A.M. After 2 months of intensive campaigning, defections,shameless somersaults, freebie race and all kind of tall promises, a clear picture is going to emerge. I had written a post on Vaiko's entry into ADMK camp nearly two months ago. I was planning to follow it up with many more posts but was rather stumped by the volume of analysis getting posted in thamizmanam. Almost anything I wanted to say was already out there. I doubt any other Indian vernacular blogging community is as active and is as full of keen political observers and analysts as Tamil blogging community is. Having said that, there were some unpleasant, acerbic exchanges too but that's quite natural given the nature of extremely divided Tamil Nadu politics, and the current close fight in particular.
In the order of my wish, here are the likely scenarios -
1) DMK front wins 150 to 180 seats - An impressive performance but not enough for DMK to form a Government on its own. Depending on the numbers lacked by DMK, the coalition government will include Congress, PMK and possibly communist parties.
2) DMK front clean-sweeps winning more than 200 seats. DMK gets a majority on its own.
3) AIADMK front manages to cross the half-line mark winning 120-140 seats. AIAIDMK forms a coalition government with MDMK and Dalit Panthers.
4) Jaya pulls off a big surprise. AIADMK front sweeps the polls and AIADMK gets a majority on its own. Need I say who forms the govt then?
For me, 1 is the most preferred scenario. 4 and to some extent 3 will be disastrous for the people of Tamil Nadu. Autocratic and whimsical Jaya simply doesn't deserve a second term. 1 will also ensure that the monopoly of the top-2 Dravidian parties in TN is broken and other parties get their share of power. With the latest opinion and exit polls clearly ruling out 3 and 4, I will be keenly watching the results to see whether it's going to be 1 or 2. With any kind of victory for Jayalalitha ruled out, I must admit I would be slightly disappointed with scenario 2. TN would lose a golden opportunity to have a healthy coalition arrangement that will deny absolute power to DMK/ADMK supremos and will also ensure a more representative and democratic government.