As all politically savvy eyes start to focus on Tamil Nadu (TN) assembly elections, here is my take on the fortunes of DPA, DMK-led front.
Can DMK front pull it off? There seems to be a lot of apprehension on their prospects despite them being a formidable alliance and their whopping victory in 2004 Lok Sabha elections. After all, anti-establishment mindset of people has always been a huge factor in Indian/TN elections. From that perspective, they should be on their way to an easy victory facing a 5-year old establishment, theoretically weaker than than the 3-year old that they trounced in 2004 parliament elections. But a good section of neutral media and political observers don't seem to think so. What sowed the seeds of doubt and uncertainty on the viability of this front in the minds of media and general public? A good number of points, which a section of media valiantly projects. Let's analyze the merits and demerits of these points.
Jayalalitha revised and reversed all her bad decisions after 2004 debacle. She has dished out sop after sop to different sections of people, the same people she had so incessantly and foolishly antagonized before 2004 elections. The reversal of bad decisions and restoration of the stolen benefits have certainly stemmed the growth of resentment. These corrective actions have also prevented public resentment from reaching a point, as it did at the end of her previous tenure, where it turns into complete disapproval and anger resulting in a total rout in elections. But have they really helped her gain a kind of approval that would help her bridge the 2004 gap and go on to outperform DMK front? I doubt it, despite what some opinion polls say. It's true that public memory is short. But it is not that short that sins of 3 years will be forgotten by the glaringly expedient rollback in the next 2 years. The problem here is there hasn't been another regime in between the "evil" and the subsequent compensating parts of her regime to expect that the damage caused by the evil part will be forgotten. Do you think a secretariat worker will vote for her so soon after the trauma and humiliation he/she suffered at her hands, just because the original benefits were restored? Slim chance in my opinion.
My verdict: Mistakes of the incumbent government are not as easily forgotten as media would have us believe. Corrective actions may stop further damage, but cannot force back the water already flown under the bridge.
But there is no palpable anger or dissatisfaction with her Govt, like there was in 1996.So what? First of all, 1996 is an extreme scenario to compare against. At the height of her arrogance and ignorance, Jayalalitha kept making stupid moves back then until the fag end of her tenure before the public wrath decimated her at the hustings. No sensible political leader in power would have found himself in such a position at the end of his tenure. Jayalalitha has apparently learned from those mistakes and is acting as wisely as any other politician in power would do when the election approaches. But that wisdom, although prevents a rout
a la 1996, hasn't helped most of the ruling parties of Indian politics in the recent past to win a second term.
And there is no palpable anger or discontent? How do you know Mr. Media? No, I won't buy the unscientific and amateur opinion polls. In Tamil Nadu, they have barely evolved and are mostly conducted by vested interests. There ought to be an anti-establishment sentiment, a significant one at that, if one goes by the patterns drawn from the history of Indian/TN politics. And that sentiment will be a major factor in the elections.
My verdict: Anti-incumbency does exist and will affect the AIADMK, more likely than not.
MDMK ditched DMK and joined AIADMK. Success of alliances are not driven by simple arithmetic, not always. This alliance, widely perceived to be unholy, may not be as successful as the simple arithmetic suggests. MDMK derives its support base primarily from the credibility enjoyed by its supremo, Mr. Vaiko. His decision to align with Jaya, whom he vehemently opposed since his incarceration under POTA for pro-LTTE speeches, is not likely to enthuse most of his traditional supporters. I will elaborate my thoughts on this in my next post. This
post by Kuzhali also brings out lot of valid points on the utility of MDMK, even though I do not agree with the conclusions drawn by him.
My verdict: Unworthy alliance. Not a significant factor to work in favour of AIADMK.
Jaya has roped in Thirumavalavan's Dalit panthers, a huge boost for AIADMK in northern districts.It's certainly a boost. Thiruma wields significant influence over Dalits in North TN and his votes are also perfectly transferable to AIADMK unlike those of MDMK. But just look at what they are up against in that part of TN - DMK + PMK. PMK is very strong in North thanks to the Vanniyar population and vis-a-vis Dalit Panthers, has wider and numerically stronger presence in North. Let's not forget the fact that Dalit Panthers' area of influence is limited to some core Northern districts. A head-to-head between AIADMK and DMK would indicate that DMK is stronger in North. And, PMK's votes are as transferable as those of Dalit Panthers. So the combined power of DMK and PMK should comfortable see them through in North, except in Chidambaram and surroundings where AIADMK-Dalit Panthers combo appears to have an edge.
My verdict: Thiruma - Good for AIADMK, but not good enough. DMK should manage to comfortable overpower Jaya in North TN.
There may be several reasons why majority of the media is completely overlooking the points above and painting a rosy picture for Jaya. But I think it is doing lot of good to Karunanidhi in some way. He is not showing any signs of the complacency that did him in 5 years ago, is making every effort to keep his allies happy and has put to use, the kind of political diplomacy, deftness and hard-work, that he is so fondly known for.
In sum, I feel DMK-led front is headed for a handsome victory. Having said that, let me point out that I haven't totally brushed aside the media opinion in favour of Jaya. I do see some merit in all points that I have dissected above. But I just can't agree with the projected extent of damage these can cause to the fortunes of DMK alliance. If these factors happen to play a big role, DMK may miserably fail to get a majority on its own. But even in that worst case scenario, I don't see the DMK-led alliance failing to cross halfway mark.
